ExpertEasy2 marksMultiple Choice
ACCA · Question 08 · Syllabus B: Data analysis and statistical techniques
A seasonal ski resort uses time series analysis to forecast visitor numbers. The underlying trend for Quarter 1 is estimated to be 15,000 visitors. The seasonal variation for Quarter 1 is +20% using a multiplicative model.
What is the forecasted number of visitors for Quarter 1?
A seasonal ski resort uses time series analysis to forecast visitor numbers. The underlying trend for Quarter 1 is estimated to be 15,000 visitors. The seasonal variation for Quarter 1 is +20% using a multiplicative model.
What is the forecasted number of visitors for Quarter 1?
Answer options:
A.
15,000
B.
18,000
C.
12,000
D.
15,020
How to approach this question
In a multiplicative model, Forecast = Trend × Seasonal Variation. Convert +20% to a multiplier of 1.20.
Full Answer
B.18,000✓ Correct
In a multiplicative time series model, the forecast is calculated by multiplying the trend by the seasonal component.
Forecast = Trend × (1 + Seasonal Variation %)
Forecast = 15,000 × 1.20 = 18,000 visitors.
Common mistakes
Using an additive model (e.g., adding 20 visitors instead of 20%).
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