Easy2 marksShort Answer
Data Analysis and Statistical TechniquesSyllabus BExpected ValuesProbability

ACCA · Question 09 · Data Analysis and Statistical Techniques

An agricultural firm is deciding whether to plant a new crop. The potential profits depend on weather conditions:

  • Good weather (30% probability): $100,000 profit
  • Average weather (50% probability): $150,000 profit
  • Poor weather (20% probability): $80,000 profit

Calculate the expected value of the profit. (Enter numbers only)

How to approach this question

Multiply each outcome by its probability and sum the results.

Full Answer

Expected Value = Σ(Probability × Outcome) EV = (0.30 × $100,000) + (0.50 × $150,000) + (0.20 × $80,000) EV = $30,000 + $75,000 + $16,000 = $121,000.

Common mistakes

Simply averaging the three profit figures without weighting them by probability.

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