Easy2 marksShort Answer
ACCA · Question 09 · Data Analysis and Statistical Techniques
An agricultural firm is deciding whether to plant a new crop. The potential profits depend on weather conditions:
- Good weather (30% probability): $100,000 profit
- Average weather (50% probability): $150,000 profit
- Poor weather (20% probability): $80,000 profit
Calculate the expected value of the profit. (Enter numbers only)
An agricultural firm is deciding whether to plant a new crop. The potential profits depend on weather conditions:
- Good weather (30% probability): $100,000 profit
- Average weather (50% probability): $150,000 profit
- Poor weather (20% probability): $80,000 profit
Calculate the expected value of the profit. (Enter numbers only)
How to approach this question
Multiply each outcome by its probability and sum the results.
Full Answer
Expected Value = Σ(Probability × Outcome)
EV = (0.30 × $100,000) + (0.50 × $150,000) + (0.20 × $80,000)
EV = $30,000 + $75,000 + $16,000 = $121,000.
Common mistakes
Simply averaging the three profit figures without weighting them by probability.
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