Easy2 marksMultiple Choice

ACCA · Question 9 · Risk and Uncertainty

Section A

PetroDrill is deciding whether to invest in one of three oil fields: Alpha, Beta, or Gamma. The management team is highly risk-averse and pessimistic, believing that the worst possible outcome is likely to occur regardless of their choice.

Which decision-making rule should PetroDrill's management apply?

Answer options:

A.

Maximax

B.

Maximin

C.

Minimax Regret

D.

Expected Value

How to approach this question

Match the psychological profile (pessimistic, risk-averse) to the decision rule. They want to ensure the worst-case scenario is as good as possible.

Full Answer

B.Maximin✓ Correct
The maximin rule is used by pessimistic decision-makers. It involves identifying the worst possible outcome (the minimum) for each alternative and then choosing the alternative that offers the highest (maximum) of these worst outcomes. It ensures the best possible result if the worst happens.

Common mistakes

Selecting Minimax Regret, which is about minimizing the pain of making the wrong choice in hindsight, rather than strictly protecting against the worst absolute outcome.

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