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    PracticeACCAACCA PM — Performance Management Practice Exam 3Question 10
    Easy2 marksMultiple Choice
    Decision-making techniquesRisk and UncertaintyExpected Value

    ACCA · Question 10 · Decision-making techniques

    Section A

    EventPro is organizing an outdoor music festival. The profit depends heavily on the weather.
    Profits:
    Good weather (Probability 0.4): $100,000
    Average weather (Probability 0.5): $40,000
    Poor weather (Probability 0.1): -$20,000 (Loss)

    What is the Expected Value (EV) of the profit for the festival?

    Answer options:

    A.

    $40,000

    B.

    $58,000

    C.

    $60,000

    D.

    $120,000

    How to approach this question

    Multiply each outcome by its probability and sum the results. Remember to subtract the loss.

    Full Answer

    B.$58,000✓ Correct
    Expected Value = (Outcome 1 * Prob 1) + (Outcome 2 * Prob 2) + (Outcome 3 * Prob 3) EV = ($100,000 * 0.4) + ($40,000 * 0.5) + (-$20,000 * 0.1) EV = $40,000 + $20,000 - $2,000 = $58,000.

    Common mistakes

    Adding the $2,000 instead of subtracting it because it is a loss.
    Question 9All questionsQuestion 11

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