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AQA GCSE · Question 20.2 · Probability
Lynn says, "My estimate of the probability of the coin landing on Heads must be the best, because 0.35 is greater than 0.32". Is she correct? Give a reason for your answer.
Lynn says, "My estimate of the probability of the coin landing on Heads must be the best, because 0.35 is greater than 0.32". Is she correct? Give a reason for your answer.
How to approach this question
1. Consider what makes a probability estimate more reliable.
2. The reliability of an experimental probability (relative frequency) increases with the number of trials conducted.
3. Compare the number of trials (spins) for Beth and Lynn.
4. Beth did 125 spins, and Lynn did 80 spins.
5. Since Beth did more spins, her result is considered a more reliable estimate of the true probability.
6. Conclude that Lynn is incorrect and state the reason.
Full Answer
No, she is not correct.
Reason: Beth's estimate is likely to be more reliable because she carried out more trials (125 spins compared to Lynn's 80).
Lynn is incorrect.
The reason is that the reliability of an experimental probability estimate depends on the number of trials performed. A larger number of trials generally leads to a more accurate and reliable estimate of the true probability.
- Beth performed 125 spins.
- Lynn performed 80 spins.
Since 125 > 80, Beth's experiment has more trials. Therefore, Beth's relative frequency of 0.32 is a more reliable estimate of the probability of the coin landing on Heads, even though it is a smaller value than Lynn's.
Common mistakes
✗ Agreeing with Lynn because her relative frequency is higher.
✗ Giving a vague reason like "it's just chance".
✗ Stating that Beth's is better but not explaining that it's due to the higher number of trials.
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