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AQA GCSE · Question 07.2 · Probability
Lynn says, "My estimate of the probability of the coin landing on Heads must be the best, because 0.35 is greater than 0.32".
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Is she correct? Give a reason for your answer.
Lynn says, "My estimate of the probability of the coin landing on Heads must be the best, because 0.35 is greater than 0.32".
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Is she correct? Give a reason for your answer.
How to approach this question
1. Consider the principle of experimental probability: more trials lead to a more reliable estimate.
2. Compare the number of spins (trials) for Beth and Lynn.
3. Decide whose estimate is better based on the number of trials, not the value of the relative frequency.
4. State your conclusion (Yes/No) and provide a clear reason based on the number of spins.
Full Answer
**No**, she is not correct.
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**Reason:** A better estimate for probability comes from a larger number of trials. Beth spun the coin more times (125) than Lynn (80), so Beth's relative frequency (0.32) is a more reliable estimate of the true probability.
Lynn is incorrect. In experimental probability, the reliability of an estimate increases with the number of trials conducted. A larger sample size is more likely to reflect the true underlying probability.
Beth conducted 125 spins, while Lynn conducted only 80 spins.
Since 125 > 80, Beth's experiment has more trials, and therefore her relative frequency of 0.32 is considered a more reliable estimate of the probability of the coin landing on Heads, even though Lynn's value of 0.35 is higher.
Common mistakes
✗ Agreeing with Lynn because 0.35 is a larger number. This ignores the principle of sample size in probability.
✗ Giving a vague reason like "it's just an estimate" without referring to the number of trials.
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