Medium2 marksStructured
Statistical Measures and Calculationsprobabilityriskmodellingfoundation

AQA GCSE · Question 16.4 · Statistical Measures and Calculations

Using the information given, what is the minimum price for which the house will apparently never sell?

How to approach this question

If the house will "never sell", the probability (risk) of not selling must be 1 (or 100%). The risk starts at 0 and increases by 0.05 for every £1000 price rise. Set up an equation to find out how many £1000 rises are needed for the risk to reach 1. Then add this amount to the base price.

Full Answer

Risk of not selling = 1. Risk increases by 0.05 for every £1000 above £135,000. Let x be the number of £1000 increases. 0.05 * x = 1 x = 1 / 0.05 = 20. This means a £20,000 increase is needed. Minimum price = £135,000 + £20,000 = £155,000.
The risk of not selling is the probability of that event occurring. For an event to be certain (i.e., it will "never sell" means it is certain it will "not sell"), its probability must be 1. The risk starts at 0 for a price of £135,000. The risk increases by 0.05 for every £1000 increase in price. Let 'x' be the number of £1000 increases needed to make the risk equal to 1. So, we have the equation: x × 0.05 = 1 To find x, we divide both sides by 0.05: x = 1 / 0.05 x = 20. This means the price needs to be increased by 20 lots of £1000, which is £20,000. The minimum price for the risk to be 1 is: £135,000 + £20,000 = £155,000.

Common mistakes

✗ Calculating the price increase (£20,000) but forgetting to add it to the original price. ✗ Making a division error (e.g., 1 / 0.05 = 0.05). ✗ Misinterpreting "never sell" as a probability other than 1.

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