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AQA GCSE · Question 11.1 · Data Collection and Sampling Methods
A large forest contains an unknown number of squirrels. Fynn is asked to estimate the number of squirrels in the forest. He catches 50 and tags them before releasing them back into the forest. Two weeks later, he catches 40 more squirrels and finds that 11 have a tag.
Give one reason why Fynn waits two weeks before catching the 40 squirrels.
A large forest contains an unknown number of squirrels. Fynn is asked to estimate the number of squirrels in the forest. He catches 50 and tags them before releasing them back into the forest. Two weeks later, he catches 40 more squirrels and finds that 11 have a tag.
Give one reason why Fynn waits two weeks before catching the 40 squirrels.
How to approach this question
1. **Understand the capture-recapture method**: This method relies on the assumption that the proportion of tagged animals in the second sample is the same as the proportion of tagged animals in the whole population.
2. **Consider the key assumption**: For this to be true, the tagged animals must have completely reintegrated with the non-tagged population.
3. **Think about the time delay**: Why is a waiting period necessary? If Fynn took the second sample immediately, the tagged squirrels would likely still be near the release point, and he would recapture a disproportionately high number of them.
4. **Formulate the reason**: The waiting period allows the tagged squirrels to disperse throughout the forest and mix randomly with the untagged population, ensuring the second sample is representative.
Full Answer
To allow the tagged squirrels enough time to mix fully and randomly with the rest of the squirrel population in the forest.
The capture-recapture method for estimating population size relies on a key assumption: the tagged individuals from the first sample have had enough time to redistribute themselves randomly throughout the entire population. If the second sample is taken too soon after the first, the tagged squirrels might not have moved far from the release point. This would make it more likely that they would be recaptured, leading to an unrepresentative second sample and an inaccurate (likely underestimated) population estimate. The two-week waiting period is to allow for this mixing to occur.
Common mistakes
✗ Vague answers like "to let them settle down".
✗ Incorrect reasons like "to let the tags dry" or "to let them have babies".
Practice the full AQA GCSE Statistics Higher Tier Paper 1
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