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    PracticeACCAACCA MA — Management Accounting Practice Exam 5Question 09
    Medium2 marksShort Answer
    B. Data analysis and statistical techniquesSyllabus Area BExpected ValueRisk and Uncertainty

    ACCA · Question 09 · B. Data analysis and statistical techniques

    A renewable energy company is evaluating the potential financial return of a new solar farm project. The analysts have modeled three possible scenarios for the first year's net cash flow:

    • Optimistic scenario: $100,000 (Probability: 0.20)
    • Most likely scenario: $60,000 (Probability: 0.50)
    • Pessimistic scenario: -$20,000 (Probability: 0.30)

    Calculate the Expected Value (EV) of the first year's net cash flow.

    (Enter the numeric value only, without commas or currency symbols)

    How to approach this question

    Multiply each outcome by its probability and sum the results. Be careful with the negative sign on the pessimistic scenario.

    Full Answer

    Expected Value = (0.20 * $100,000) + (0.50 * $60,000) + (0.30 * -$20,000) EV = $20,000 + $30,000 - $6,000 = $44,000.

    Common mistakes

    Adding the pessimistic scenario instead of subtracting it (resulting in $56,000).
    Question 08All questionsQuestion 10

    Practice the full ACCA MA — Management Accounting Practice Exam 5

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