A study finds a strong positive correlation between the number of ice creams sold and the number of shark attacks in a coastal town.
Which of the following is the most sensible conclusion?

Answer options:

Increased ice cream sales cause more shark attacks.

There is no causal link between the two variables despite the correlation.

Increased shark attacks cause more ice cream to be sold.

Increased ice cream sales cause more shark attacks and more shark attacks cause increased ice cream sales.

How to approach this question

The key statistical concept here is "correlation does not imply causation". Just because two things happen at the same time (correlation) doesn't mean one causes the other (causation). Think if there could be a third factor that might be causing both variables to increase.

Full Answer

B.There is no causal link between the two variables despite the correlation.✓ Correct

This is a classic example of "correlation does not imply causation". A strong positive correlation means that as one variable increases, the other also tends to increase. In this case, as ice cream sales go up, so do shark attacks. However, it is illogical to think that one causes the other. Instead, there is likely a third, confounding variable that influences both. In this scenario, the confounding variable is **hot weather**. - Hot weather causes more people to buy ice cream. - Hot weather also causes more people to go swimming in the sea, which increases the chance of a shark encounter. Therefore, the two variables are correlated, but there is no direct causal link between them. The correlation is caused by an external factor.

Common mistakes

✗ Confusing correlation with causation and choosing option A or C. ✗ Thinking that a strong correlation must mean there is a direct link between the variables.

Question 11 All questions Question 13.1

Practice the full AQA GCSE Statistics Foundation Tier Paper 1

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