ExpertEasy1 markShort Answer
AQA GCSE · Question 06.2 · Statistics
Estimate the number of workers at the company in 2023.
Estimate the number of workers at the company in 2023.
How to approach this question
Look at the trend of the graph. The number of workers is increasing. You can either extend the line from the last two points (2021 and 2022) to 2023, or you can look at the pattern of increases in the table and make a sensible prediction for the next increase.
Full Answer
By observing the trend, the number of workers is increasing each year. The increases from 2019 onwards are +8, +6, +4. The trend is an increasing number of workers, but the rate of increase is slowing. A reasonable estimate would be to continue this pattern, so the next increase might be +2.
80 + 2 = 82.
Alternatively, drawing a line of best fit through the later points and extending it to 2023 would give a value in the range 82-86.
Any value between 82 and 86 is a reasonable estimate.
To estimate a future value from a time-series graph, we look at the recent trend.
The number of workers is clearly increasing. Let's look at the year-on-year increase:
2015-16: +5
2016-17: +8
2017-18: +10
2018-19: +10
2019-20: +8
2020-21: +6
2021-22: +4
The rate of increase was speeding up and is now slowing down. The increase has decreased by 2 each year for the last two years. It is reasonable to assume this pattern continues, so the next increase would be 4 - 2 = 2.
Estimated number in 2023 = 80 (in 2022) + 2 = 82.
Another valid method is to draw a line of best fit by eye and extrapolate. This would also lead to an answer in the low 80s. Any answer between 82 and 86 would be considered reasonable.
Common mistakes
✗ Simply repeating the last value (80).
✗ Making an unrealistic prediction, e.g., 100, without justification.
✗ Calculating the average increase over the whole period and adding that on, which ignores the more recent trend of slowing growth.
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